Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe1ec…72af other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$37 (+8%) realized +$49 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$13
sports 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+76.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +94.9% +76.3% 75% 75% +50.0%
≤30d 8 +94.9% +76.3% 75% 75% +50.0%
≤90d 8 +94.9% +76.3% 75% 75% +50.0%
all 8 +94.9% +76.3% 75% 75% +50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +76.3% 75% +50.0%
10% +59.4% 62% +35.7%
15% +44.0% 62% +22.6%
20% +29.9% 38% +10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.54 per $1 lost it wins $5.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $133 $144 +$11 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $136 $116 −$21 (-15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 +$27 +650%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$9 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +46%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $63 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $33 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 47h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $45 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $89 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.53 · official $318.76 (match) · 27 history records