Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe1ec…32ff other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,312 (-27%) realized −$3,283 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$3,881
14 days−$3,641
30 days−$3,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$3,394
sports 9% +$630
world 5% −$597
crypto 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -41.8% -47.3% 36% 23% -42.3%
≤30d 25 -34.5% -40.8% 40% 28% -38.3%
≤90d 25 -34.5% -40.8% 40% 28% -38.3%
all 27 -28.8% -35.5% 44% 33% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 33% -34.6%
10% -41.7% 26% -40.9%
15% -47.3% 26% -46.6%
20% -52.5% 19% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$597) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$387 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$3,283
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage230d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 28¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $38 −$37 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $508 −$505 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $606 −$597 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $580 −$574 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$57 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,205 −$2,200 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 +$463 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$31 -81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $241 −$132 -55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $186 +$416 +224%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,405 +$82 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $170 −$168 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $999 +$577 +58%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $750 −$747 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $622 +$67 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $635 +$46 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $540 +$95 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $252 +$287 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $177 −$173 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $304 +$126 +41%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $202 +$102 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $477 +$176 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 41h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $471 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $545 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $38 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,205 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $975 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $170 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $170 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $170 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $11 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $38 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $38 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $602 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $99 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.22 · official $71.25 (match) · 68 history records