Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E1 0xe1fa…9c2c sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,555 (+16%) realized +$6,494 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%36W / 32L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$514est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,736
7 days+$2,862
14 days+$2,254
30 days+$2,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$6,589
other 6% −$2,307
world 2% $0
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.7% +11.9% 57% 50% +6.4%
≤30d 66 +10.6% +0.1% 52% 47% -3.3%
≤90d 68 +12.7% +2.0% 53% 49% +0.2%
all 68 +12.7% +2.0% 53% 49% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 49% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 46% -9.4%
15% -16.7% 44% -18.2%
20% -24.8% 44% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$770) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$426 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,002
Realized+$6,494
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses36 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$514
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage32d
Avg bet$604
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 50¢ $1,942 $2,002 +$61 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,033 −$2,001 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,735 −$2,735 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,445 +$3,585 +104%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,931 +$1,950 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $420 +$408 +97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,159 +$1,538 +133%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $448 +$626 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $379 −$373 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,145 −$1,749 -82%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,230 +$1,246 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Game Handicap: PS (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $630 +$369 +59%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $556 −$556 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $470 +$530 +113%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $945 −$945 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $143 +$143 +100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $192 $0 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $5,511 +$705 +13%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $269 +$294 +109%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $30 $0 -1%
Belarus vs. Syria: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Indonesia vs. Oman: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $671 −$660 -98%
Will San Marino vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Jun 05 $122 −$119 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $57 +$64 +113%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $413 −$407 -99%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,075 −$1,068 -99%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $500 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. Gambia: Both Teams to Score May 30 $162 −$162 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $1,758 +$301 +17%
CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético: Both Teams to Score May 29 $1,971 +$1,129 +57%
Will FC Rapid 1923 vs. Universitatea Craiova CS end in a draw? May 25 $299 +$670 +224%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1,694 −$1,647 -97%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 May 24 $270 +$376 +139%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $714 +$714 +100%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 23 $813 $0 -0%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 May 22 $186 +$154 +83%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5 May 22 $161 +$332 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $1,972 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2,033 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $87 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $16 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $2 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $2 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $2 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $62 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $27 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $22 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,002.28 · official $2,002.28 (match) · 400 history records