Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1fb…78d1 weather 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$218 (+5%) realized +$231 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate91%48W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% +$183
sports 27% +$14
other 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +15.4% +4.4% 86% 64% +0.1%
≤30d 15 +15.3% +4.3% 87% 67% +0.2%
≤90d 44 +6.5% -3.6% 89% 45% -3.8%
all 53 +6.0% -4.1% 91% 38% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 38% -5.1%
10% -13.3% 13% -14.2%
15% -21.7% 4% -22.5%
20% -29.4% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$28 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses48 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage146d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? No 84¢ 76¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $320 −$16 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 −$10 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $101 +$32 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $32 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 06 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13? Apr 13 $55 −$53 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? Apr 13 $122 −$46 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13? Apr 13 $95 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13? Apr 13 $81 +$14 +18%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 13? Apr 13 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12? Apr 12 $66 +$11 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 12? Apr 12 $60 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $64 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $91 +$23 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 9? Apr 09 $62 +$18 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8? Apr 09 $67 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8? Apr 08 $59 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $55 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7? Apr 07 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6? Apr 07 $42 +$12 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4? Apr 04 $53 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 1? Apr 03 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Mar 30 $60 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? Mar 30 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 29? Mar 30 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28? Mar 28 $69 +$9 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 28? Mar 28 $66 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28? Mar 28 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 27? Mar 27 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 27? Mar 27 $56 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26? Mar 26 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22? Mar 24 $49 +$1 +3%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 11 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on Febru Feb 28 $43 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? Feb 27 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 Feb 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 12 $1,020 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $100 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $69 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $52 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $52 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 72¢ $51 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 13h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 61¢ $118 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 49¢ $113 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 69¢ $41 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $101 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $61 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $101 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $50 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.66 · official $241.49 · 122 history records