Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe1fc…44df crypto 751 markets active 1d ago coverage 1049d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,913 (+12%) realized +$1,913 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%354W / 397L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$486
14 days−$486
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$1,044
economics 41% +$536
world 6% +$335
politics 2% −$273
other 1% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 293 -60.9% -64.6% 17% 14% -15.7%
≤30d 294 -61.0% -64.7% 17% 14% -15.8%
≤90d 748 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 39% +1.6%
all 751 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 38% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 38% +1.0%
10% -22.0% 31% -8.6%
15% -29.5% 24% -17.5%
20% -36.4% 18% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1049d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses354 / 397
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)751 / 751
History coverage1049d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 751 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.00 (match) · 3105 history records