Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
E1 0xe1ff…01d0 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9,190 (+63%) realized +$9,252 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,087
7 days+$4,037
14 days+$4,037
30 days+$4,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$6,731
politics 8% +$870
other 1% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +98.4% +79.5% 75% 75% +107.7%
≤30d 8 +98.4% +79.5% 75% 75% +107.7%
≤90d 8 +98.4% +79.5% 75% 75% +107.7%
all 23 +35.2% +22.3% 57% 57% +45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 57% +45.8%
10% +10.6% 57% +31.9%
15% -0.1% 57% +19.1%
20% -9.9% 52% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +130% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$938) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$890 vs −$376 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$9,252
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage380d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 96¢ $148 $382 +$234 (+158%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $298 $2 −$296 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $143 −$140 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,176 +$1,624 +138%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $953 +$1,446 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $183 +$157 +86%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $175 +$346 +197%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $206 +$494 +239%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $143 +$250 +175%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 11 $1,530 −$1,152 -75%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 11 $1,445 +$1,554 +108%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $789 −$565 -72%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $659 −$4 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $87 +$63 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $186 +$74 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $124 +$76 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $240 −$102 -42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $2,139 +$3,200 +150%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $1,234 −$812 -66%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $712 −$432 -61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $820 +$1,013 +124%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $720 +$1,280 +178%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 03 $381 −$381 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $151 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $143 41h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $22 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $15 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $1 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $1 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $5 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $34 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $18 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $6 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $7 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $1,068 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $599 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $183 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $66 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $119 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $477 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $79 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $278 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $142 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $143 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $108 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $67 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.80 · official $383.80 (match) · 269 history records