Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe200…4a7b other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$2
other 24% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -9.9%
all 27 -0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 23 $13 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $15 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $2 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $40 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $37 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $37 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $36 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $37 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.96 · official $35.26 (match) · 76 history records