Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe200…5902 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$163 (-27%) realized −$158 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$41
other 19% −$101
world 5% −$21
weather 3% +$14
crypto 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 33% 33% +7.8%
≤30d 5 +14.5% +3.6% 40% 40% +0.1%
≤90d 12 -13.5% -21.7% 25% 25% -40.3%
all 21 -31.1% -37.7% 24% 24% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 24% -47.5%
10% -43.7% 19% -52.5%
15% -49.1% 19% -57.1%
20% -54.1% 19% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions21
Markets (closed)21 / 42
History coverage343d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +94%
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria May 19 $34 −$2 -5%
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland May 19 $29 +$6 +20%
NL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Davos Apr 20 $17 +$18 +106%
Human moon landing in 2026? Apr 20 $20 −$6 -30%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 01 $10 −$1 -5%
Capitals vs. Devils Apr 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter Apr 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter O Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Mets vs. Orioles Dec 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Dec 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Jul 17 $5 +$7 +138%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Jul 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Wimbledon: Norrie vs. Alcaraz Jul 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on Jul Jul 09 $20 +$14 +70%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Siegemund Jul 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 2h
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria SELL Latvia 63¢ $33 27d
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria BUY Latvia 65¢ $34 27d
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 83¢ $29 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.91 · official $204.93 (match) · 66 history records