Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe203…1b53 sports 1016 markets active 3h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,973 (-4%) realized −$5,042 · open +$69
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%411W / 604L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$517est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days−$611
14 days−$373
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$3,763
other 6% −$1,265
crypto 0% −$301
politics 0% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -22.6% -30.0% 43% 41% -22.3%
≤30d 151 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 41% -12.7%
≤90d 530 -22.9% -30.3% 37% 36% -27.4%
all 1015 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -13.1%
10% -25.3% 37% -21.4%
15% -32.5% 34% -29.0%
20% -39.1% 31% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$100 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$5,042
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses411 / 604
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$517
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1015 / 1016
History coverage220d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ 100¢ $81 $150 +$69 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $271 +$112 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$104 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 −$65 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $111 +$71 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $53 +$58 +109%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $56 +$60 +107%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $83 +$24 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$53 +180%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $43 −$43 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $146 −$144 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $91 −$60 -66%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $56 +$35 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$11 +62%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $137 −$135 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $161 +$76 +47%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 +$118 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $95 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $75 −$74 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $47 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$62 +94%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$49 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $311 +$53 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $80 +$120 +150%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $105 −$57 -55%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $172 +$71 +42%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $109 +$69 +63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $75 +$34 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $81 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $383 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $271 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $99 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $65 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $182 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $0 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $0 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $9 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $0 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $111 11h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 47¢ $53 19h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 99¢ $117 19h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 47¢ $56 20h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $51 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $83 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $30 34h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 52¢ $43 38h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Stefano Napolitano 99¢ $40 38h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 74¢ $30 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $68 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $78 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $28 41h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Beatriz Haddad Maia 36¢ $18 41h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Beatriz Haddad Maia 12¢ $13 41h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 57¢ $91 41h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 100¢ $91 41h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 60¢ $56 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $56 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.93 · official $149.93 (match) · 2606 history records