Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe203…f027 weather 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-1%) realized −$179 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%126W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$183
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.4% -11.7% 84% 16% -14.7%
≤30d 47 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 13% -13.2%
≤90d 137 -1.2% -10.6% 92% 5% -10.2%
all 137 -1.2% -10.6% 92% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 5% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses126 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)137 / 143
History coverage80d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? No 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 11? Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C or below on June 9? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 8 Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on June 8? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 8? Jun 06 $11 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on June 7? Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 12? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13? May 12 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 13? May 12 $14 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.81 · official $40.81 (match) · 2311 history records