Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe204…1d42 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$12
other 5% −$1
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 36 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 3% -10.1%
all 37 -3.9% -13.1% 35% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -10.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage491d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $23 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -41%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $243 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $32 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $36 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 −$6 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $243 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $235 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $233 +$2 +1%
Central Connecticut vs. Chicago State Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $27 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $24 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $24 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $24 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $3 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $21 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $23 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $21 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $24 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $27 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records