Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe205…d3c2 crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$184 (-4%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%63W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$44
14 days+$18
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$361
sports 41% +$106
other 2% +$50
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.3% -2.9% 67% 67% +8.2%
≤30d 57 -10.6% -19.2% 49% 42% -18.4%
≤90d 100 -7.7% -16.4% 48% 39% -14.1%
all 123 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 41% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -13.6%
10% -23.1% 33% -21.9%
15% -30.6% 26% -29.4%
20% -37.4% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses63 / 60
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage97d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$7 +26%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $38 +$11 +29%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $54 +$34 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$32 +106%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $97 +$32 +33%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $22 +$27 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$4 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$16 -64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$8 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $37 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +150%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$5 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $73 +$35 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$32 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $61 −$4 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $28 +$5 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $20 −$2 -8%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $29 +$28 +95%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $88 +$41 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $21 −$18 -88%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $6 +$19 +320%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $31 +$11 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $33 22m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1 23m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 23m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $13 28m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1 28m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $25 28m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 28m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $23 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 45m
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $38 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $53 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $72 3d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $3 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $60 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $31 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $14 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $10 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $16 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 343 history records