Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe207…826e sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+5%) realized +$19 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 53L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$27
sports 40% +$32
world 7% +$28
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.4% -2.9% 47% 47% +6.0%
≤30d 26 +6.1% -4.0% 35% 35% -0.7%
≤90d 37 -2.3% -11.6% 32% 32% -3.4%
all 85 +3.1% -6.8% 38% 35% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 35% -2.4%
10% -15.7% 34% -11.7%
15% -23.8% 33% -20.3%
20% -31.3% 33% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 94
History coverage233d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 66¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$5 +208%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$6 +15%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$3 +186%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$5 +194%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Armenia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 08 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Greece 1 - 2 Italy? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 +$6 +353%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 −$1 -25%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $2 −$1 -68%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 +$4 +285%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Armenia leading at halftime? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $2 $0 -9%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $2 +$2 +104%
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Gambia end in a draw? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw? Mar 31 $1 +$2 +157%
Will Sweden vs. Poland end in a draw? Mar 31 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jan 08 $2 −$1 -69%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 23 $3 −$1 -20%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Dec 06 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims) Dec 06 $4 −$4 -100%
PAOK vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Score Nov 28 $3 +$2 +85%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score Nov 28 $4 +$2 +61%
Rangers FC vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score Nov 28 $4 +$3 +79%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-27? Nov 28 $5 +$3 +56%
Will PAOK vs. SK Brann end in a draw? Nov 28 $2 +$14 +567%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 43¢ $4 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $1 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $2 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $3 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 60¢ $5 34h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $4 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY 45¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 32¢ $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 24¢ $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 33¢ $14 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 26¢ $4 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 26¢ $4 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 31¢ $30 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 27¢ $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 27¢ $17 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 27¢ $12 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.61 · official $26.61 (match) · 173 history records