Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe208…4e40 crypto 1980 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-5%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%964W / 880L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$521
14 days+$702
30 days+$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$746
sports 2% +$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 342 +20.3% +8.9% 65% 64% +8.6%
≤30d 754 +14.1% +3.3% 61% 60% +7.7%
≤90d 1844 +0.4% -9.1% 52% 51% +3.1%
all 1844 +0.4% -9.1% 52% 51% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 51% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 49% -6.8%
15% -25.8% 45% -15.8%
20% -33.0% 42% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses964 / 880
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1844 / 1980
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1844 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$13 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records