Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe208…229b other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$316
sports 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -65.6% -68.9% 0% 0% -24.0%
≤30d 5 -65.6% -68.9% 0% 0% -24.0%
≤90d 5 -65.6% -68.9% 0% 0% -24.0%
all 5 -65.6% -68.9% 0% 0% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.9% 0% -24.0%
10% -71.9% 0% -31.3%
15% -74.6% 0% -37.9%
20% -77.1% 0% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$68 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,749 −$48 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $59 −$58 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $271 −$211 -78%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $26 −$12 -48%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 71¢ $829 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $856 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $872 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $536 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $59 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 13¢ $61 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $357 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $271 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $13 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $26 29h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records