Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe209…f457 other 112 markets active 1d ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$91 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,209per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$82
politics 34% −$56
sports 9% +$48
culture 8% −$12
economics 3% −$5
crypto 1% +$6
world 1% −$26
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -15.3% -23.4% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 111 -1.0% -10.5% 27% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 10% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,543) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$690
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,209
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $689 $690 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,025 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,508 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,930 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,834 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $405 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 03 $523 +$2 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $864 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,336 −$5 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,980 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,564 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $4,993 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,902 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $311 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $374 +$2 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,454 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,459 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,421 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,013 −$1 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $792 +$8 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $427 $0 +0%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $658 25h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $659 27h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 31h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 32h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $509 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $510 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $689 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $993 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $995 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,506 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,502 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,504 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,421 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,423 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,340 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,342 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,218 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,181 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,183 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,515 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,516 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,268 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $689.95 · official $689.95 (match) · 368 history records