Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe20b…3ae4 sports 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,256 (+6%) realized +$1,263 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%150W / 110L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$190
14 days+$257
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,607
other 15% −$536
world 1% +$8
crypto 0% −$30
economics 0% −$10
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +30.8% +18.4% 83% 83% +21.7%
≤30d 114 +4.4% -5.5% 67% 67% -9.3%
≤90d 260 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 57% -5.2%
all 260 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 57% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 57% -5.2%
10% -18.1% 52% -14.3%
15% -26.0% 45% -22.6%
20% -33.3% 36% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$56 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$1,263
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses150 / 110
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions4
Markets (closed)260 / 264
History coverage54d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 26¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$8 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$15 +50%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$12 +60%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $36 +$33 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $46 +$32 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$11 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $25 +$25 +97%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $46 +$38 +82%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $25 +$7 +29%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $35 +$6 +18%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $85 +$13 +16%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $74 +$17 +23%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $35 +$10 +27%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $25 +$14 +57%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: Both Teams to Score May 26 $98 −$96 -99%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $162 −$160 -99%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $204 −$42 -21%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 May 25 $200 −$198 -99%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 May 25 $45 +$36 +79%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $66 −$65 -99%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 24 $71 −$64 -91%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 24 $55 +$49 +89%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 +$18 +73%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $51 +$34 +67%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $56 +$26 +48%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $56 +$33 +59%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $60 +$31 +52%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to Score May 24 $46 +$31 +67%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $46 +$33 +73%
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5 May 24 $116 +$34 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $24 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $46 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 2d
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 3d
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $46 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $36 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 4d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $46 4d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 4d
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 4d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 5d
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) BUY Azerbaijan 62¢ $25 5d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $85 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 7d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 7d
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.26 · official $54.26 (match) · 471 history records