Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe20b…3217 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,671per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$55
economics 39% −$2
other 1% +$6
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 75% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 7% -9.5%
all 26 +2.4% -7.4% 88% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 8% -9.4%
10% -16.3% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,734) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage181d
Avg bet$1,671
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $394 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $1,866 +$11 +1%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $8,494 +$8 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $8,532 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8,544 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 16 $8,564 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Apr 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Mar 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Feb 10 $3 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $5,263 +$53 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $1,734 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 19? Dec 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 15-21? Dec 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 29m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $290 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8,501 7h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8,494 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8,522 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8,532 25h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,533 25h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,544 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $601 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $206 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $7,750 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,564 35h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 21d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $2 21d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 21d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 59d
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 119 history records