trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 16 | -35.1% | -41.3% | 31% | 31% | -10.2% |
| all | 24 | -22.7% | -30.1% | 42% | 25% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.1% | 25% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 21% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 17% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 4% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 52¢ | 47¢ | $235 | $211 | −$24 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey arrested by May 15? | Apr 29 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 25 | $100 | +$53 | +53% |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 13 | $157 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? | Apr 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? | Apr 13 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Apr 13 | $159 | +$70 | +44% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Apr 02 | $689 | +$157 | +23% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: January | Mar 31 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Mar 31 | $381 | −$225 | -59% |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "ICE" 4+ times at the rally on Saturday? | Mar 28 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Bipartisan" at the rally on Saturday? | Mar 28 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Existence" at the rally on Saturday? | Mar 28 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 5+ times at the rally on Saturda | Mar 28 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during C | Mar 26 | $100 | +$43 | +43% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 23 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Mar 18 | $233 | −$19 | -8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 15 | $230 | +$3 | +1% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 02 | $145 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 02 | $256 | −$11 | -4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jan 27 | $249 | +$6 | +2% |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Jan 24 | $100 | −$8 | -8% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 20 | $249 | $0 | +0% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | Jan 16 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 13 | $200 | +$44 | +22% |