Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe20c…d073 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$560per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$60
sports 30% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.7% -18.3% 89% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -9.7% -18.3% 89% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -9.7% -18.3% 89% 0% -9.7%
all 9 -9.7% -18.3% 89% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$40 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,640
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$560
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 94¢ 96¢ $2,000 $2,033 +$33 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $650 +$6 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $250 +$1 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,028 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $200 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $300 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $501 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $301 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $20 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $500 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 98¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $25 3h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 99¢ $50 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,639.86 · official $2,639.86 (match) · 45 history records