Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe212…0409 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$389 (-28%) realized −$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$430
14 days−$513
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$54
other 37% −$464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.6% -46.3% 29% 29% -71.6%
≤30d 19 -7.2% -16.0% 47% 47% -36.5%
≤90d 19 -7.2% -16.0% 47% 47% -36.5%
all 19 -7.2% -16.0% 47% 47% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 47% -36.5%
10% -24.1% 47% -42.6%
15% -31.4% 47% -48.1%
20% -38.1% 37% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$82 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage21d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 +$10 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $63 −$17 -26%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $86 +$35 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $51 +$35 +69%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$17 +113%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $23 +$21 +93%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 +$82 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $110 +$106 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $49 +$24 +50%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 01 $56 +$80 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $27 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $17 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $50 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $120 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $86 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 57¢ $285 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $51 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $38 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $38 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $23 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 10d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $100 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $63 10d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $110 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 39¢ $216 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $110 14d
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona BUY CB Murcia 56¢ $73 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Mirra Andreeva 66¢ $49 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 48¢ $87 19d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 46¢ $11 20d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 40¢ $45 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.31 · official $26.31 (match) · 46 history records