Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe213…0632 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%26W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1
other 22% −$13
politics 8% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% −$1
sports 2% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 55% 9% -9.0%
≤30d 24 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 4% -9.4%
all 52 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 2% -10.5%
10% -21.8% 2% -19.1%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage431d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $131 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $52 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $35 −$2 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $27 −$11 -41%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $7 $0 +7%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Kristaps Porzingis Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 15 $16 $0 -0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $26 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $2 $0 -21%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 18 $12 −$2 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 32m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $44 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $34 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $6 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $38 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $42 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records