Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe214…ed4a sports 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-21%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$4
other 37% −$10
world 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 38% -29.8%
≤30d 16 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 38% -29.8%
≤90d 16 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 38% -29.8%
all 16 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 38% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 38% -29.8%
10% -40.7% 38% -36.6%
15% -46.4% 25% -42.7%
20% -51.7% 25% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 44h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 36¢ $2 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 49¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 68¢ $3 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $0 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $2 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 11¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $3 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $3 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $3 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $1 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $2 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 75¢ $4 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records