Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
E2 0xe214…c5ce sports 23 markets active 4h ago coverage 410d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$63,662 (+61%) realized +$63,662 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$4,559per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$750est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77,942
7 days+$77,942
14 days+$77,942
30 days+$77,942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$55,999
other 36% +$12,900
politics 17% −$6,206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +136.0% +113.5% 92% 92% +80.4%
≤30d 12 +136.0% +113.5% 92% 92% +80.4%
≤90d 12 +136.0% +113.5% 92% 92% +80.4%
all 23 +43.0% +29.4% 61% 57% +44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.4% 57% +44.6%
10% ← realistic here +17.0% 48% +30.7%
15% +5.7% 48% +18.1%
20% -4.7% 43% +6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$6,865) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -58% → late +136% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,663 vs −$1,844 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.78 per $1 lost it wins $4.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63,662
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$750
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage410d
Avg bet$4,559
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $10 +$70 +687%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12,569 +$21,261 +169%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $649 −$632 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,865 +$3,135 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,059 +$3,784 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $13,620 +$16,184 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $635 +$396 +62%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,416 +$3,766 +156%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $14,145 +$8,688 +61%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,436 +$2,482 +173%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15,233 +$13,646 +90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,771 +$5,163 +76%
Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
New Pope announced by May 9? May 11 $8,693 −$8,693 -100%
Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $1,121 +$53 +5%
Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $4,838 −$4,836 -100%
Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $6,658 −$1,990 -30%
Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $2,208 +$328 +15%
Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $188 −$88 -47%
Will PAP win 90 or more seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $2,393 +$332 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $866 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $80 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $32 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $41 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $41 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $47 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $26 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1,376 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $89 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $741 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $26 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1,128 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $649 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,005 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $45 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,722 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3,187 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,029 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $5,073 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,029 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records