Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

E2 0xe215…7356 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2,075 (-48%) realized −$2,063 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip

Net edge-77%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$485per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$1,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-75.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-20.1%	-27.7%	0%	0%	-27.7%
≤30d	3	-73.4%	-75.9%	0%	0%	-91.5%
≤90d	3	-73.4%	-75.9%	0%	0%	-91.5%
all	3	-73.4%	-75.9%	0%	0%	-91.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-75.9%	0%	-91.5%
10%	-78.2%	0%	-92.4%
15%	-80.3%	0%	-93.1%
20%	-82.2%	0%	-93.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -91% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -73% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$689 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$1,980

Realized−$2,063

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions6

Markets (closed)3 / 9

History coverage27d

Avg bet$485

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$509	$566	+$57 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$291	$347	+$56 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	15¢	$291	$328	+$37 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$300	$279	−$21 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$300	$243	−$57 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$300	$217	−$83 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$267	−$54	-20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	May 30	$627	−$613	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$1,426	−$1,400	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$214	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$213	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$299	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$299	5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$267	14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$307	14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$308	14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$308	14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$308	14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	25¢	$627	26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1,426	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,979.70 · official $1,979.70 (match) · 26 history records