Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe215…f6b0 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 25% −$2
politics 14% $0
sports 10% +$3
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 20% 20% -9.7%
≤30d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 17% 17% -9.7%
≤90d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 17% 17% -9.7%
all 30 -3.6% -12.8% 30% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 7% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage468d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for May 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will X buy TikTok? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 9m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $28 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $28 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 9d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 331d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 358d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $14 358d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 91¢ $1 379d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $14 393d
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for SELL No 97¢ $14 393d
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for BUY No 98¢ $14 395d
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL No 99¢ $14 395d
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY No 99¢ $14 395d
Will X buy TikTok? SELL No 96¢ $13 395d
Will X buy TikTok? BUY No 97¢ $14 396d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $14 397d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 97¢ $14 399d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records