Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe217…ca2a other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$13
politics 35% −$11
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
sports 3% +$141
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +8.2% -2.1% 8% 6% -9.3%
all 122 +10.2% -0.3% 11% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 10% -9.1%
10% -9.9% 8% -17.8%
15% -18.6% 5% -25.7%
20% -26.6% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×18.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage113d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $251 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $854 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $383 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $163 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $375 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $413 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $122 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $164 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $142 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $196 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $28 19h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $22 19h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $195 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $195 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $187 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $161 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $161 23d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 24d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 25d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $188 25d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $188 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 26d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $163 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $163 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records