Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe218…860d other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+6%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$17
sports 23% +$38
world 15% −$1
politics 15% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% -2.4%
≤30d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% -2.4%
≤90d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% -2.4%
all 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 38% -2.4%
10% -21.2% 35% -11.8%
15% -28.9% 27% -20.3%
20% -35.8% 27% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$15 +26%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 19 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 −$22 -80%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$28 +91%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$23 +50%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $23 −$1 -2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -82%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$35 +117%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$19 +123%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 S Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +249%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 9m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $60 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 21h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 44¢ $12 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 21h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 44¢ $6 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $22 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records