Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E2 0xe219…8cc8 crypto 82 markets active 4h ago coverage 239d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 238d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,813 (-7%) realized −$10,813 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%41W / 41L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,890per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,016
7 days−$1,016
14 days−$1,016
30 days−$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$7,394
other 29% −$3,246
sports 13% −$2,406
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.2% -35.0% 43% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 7 -28.2% -35.0% 43% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 50% 7% -19.4%
all 82 +31.3% +18.8% 50% 27% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.8% 27% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here +7.5% 15% -25.7%
15% -2.9% 9% -32.9%
20% -12.4% 5% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +91% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$652 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,813
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses41 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage239d ⚠
Avg bet$1,890
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $3,156 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $5,976 +$477 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $8,531 +$141 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $553 −$553 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $1,049 −$994 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $1,036 −$80 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2,311 −$1,556 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2PM ET Mar 25 $1,888 −$854 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1PM ET Mar 25 $610 +$168 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12PM ET Mar 25 $2,576 +$114 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11AM ET Mar 25 $508 −$200 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10AM ET Mar 25 $2,007 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9AM ET Mar 25 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 29 $47 −$41 -88%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 29 $31 +$16 +52%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $76 −$45 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 12PM ET Dec 27 $109 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11AM ET Dec 27 $726 −$107 -15%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $139 +$31 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Dec 27 $136 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 8AM ET Dec 27 $342 −$55 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7PM ET Nov 30 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 6PM ET Nov 30 $518 −$259 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 30 $518 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 3PM ET Nov 30 $499 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Nov 30 $508 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1PM ET Nov 30 $508 $0 +0%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 1.5 Nov 30 $349 +$159 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 9AM ET Nov 30 $492 −$326 -66%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $504 +$150 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Nov 14 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 14 $58 −$29 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6AM ET Nov 14 $130 −$65 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9PM ET Nov 14 $2,570 −$1,148 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8PM ET Nov 14 $619 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7PM ET Nov 14 $216 −$31 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3AM ET Nov 07 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7PM ET Nov 07 $4,360 +$682 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET Nov 07 $3,637 +$754 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9PM ET Nov 07 $5,540 −$779 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 07 $2,200 +$323 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 07 $980 −$140 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Nov 06 $840 +$42 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6PM ET Nov 06 $830 +$148 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2PM ET Nov 06 $2,222 +$127 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 06 $700 −$350 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4AM ET Nov 06 $1,831 −$108 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 06 $850 −$10 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3459 history records