Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe21c…1448 sports 48 markets active 24h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-9%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -59.2% -63.1% 22% 22% -61.3%
≤30d 25 -26.2% -33.2% 36% 36% -32.1%
≤90d 38 -14.1% -22.3% 42% 42% -19.8%
all 48 -11.0% -19.4% 44% 44% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 44% -18.2%
10% -27.1% 44% -26.0%
15% -34.2% 44% -33.2%
20% -40.6% 44% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage98d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +82%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $2 +$3 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2 +$3 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 08 $2 +$3 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $2 +$3 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $2 +$3 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Fonseca vs. Prizmic: Match O/U 38.5 May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 27 $3 +$2 +92%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 21 $2 +$3 +152%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) May 04 $2 +$2 +101%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5 Apr 26 $3 +$2 +96%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 Apr 26 $3 +$2 +96%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 26 $3 +$2 +96%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 21 $2 +$3 +108%
Spread: Utah (-1.5) Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Mar 22 $3 +$2 +85%
Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5 Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5 Mar 18 $2 +$3 +122%
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics: O/U 212.5 Mar 17 $3 +$2 +92%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Mar 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5 Mar 15 $2 +$3 +113%
Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-19.5) Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5 Mar 13 $3 +$2 +92%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $3 23h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $3 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $3 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 54¢ $3 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $3 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $2 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $2 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $3 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $2 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $2 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $2 10d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $2 10d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $2 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 11d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $2 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $2 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $2 16d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $2 19d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $2 20d
Fonseca vs. Prizmic: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 22d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $2 27d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $3 27d
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres BUY Athletics 45¢ $2 28d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $2 34d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cincinnati Reds 39¢ $2 35d
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) BUY Celtic FC 37¢ $2 35d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 36d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Avalanche 42¢ $2 44d
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) BUY Nuggets 49¢ $2 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records