Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe21c…80c4 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$34 (+88%) realized +$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +188% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +161% what you keep after slip
Net edge+161%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$5
politics 39% −$6
sports 21% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+161.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +286.3% +249.5% 43% 43% +158.8%
≤30d 7 +286.3% +249.5% 43% 43% +158.8%
≤90d 8 +260.6% +226.3% 50% 50% +140.9%
all 10 +188.5% +161.0% 40% 40% +74.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +161.0% 40% +74.2%
10% +136.0% 40% +57.5%
15% +113.2% 40% +42.3%
20% +92.3% 40% +28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +166% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +189% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +413%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$38 +1843%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +148%
Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 21 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 29h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 3d
Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 86d
Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 94d
Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 94d
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? BUY No 27¢ $5 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.17 · official $3.17 (match) · 15 history records