Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe21f…9fe3 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-6%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.3% -26.0% 50% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 6 -18.3% -26.0% 50% 50% -16.3%
≤90d 6 -18.3% -26.0% 50% 50% -16.3%
all 6 -18.3% -26.0% 50% 50% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 50% -16.3%
10% -33.1% 50% -24.3%
15% -39.6% 50% -31.7%
20% -45.5% 50% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$68 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Lucio Ratti 50¢ 50¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $101 +$69 +68%
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 18 $66 +$43 +66%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 50¢ $20 54m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 50¢ $51 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 50¢ $51 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 59¢ $56 16h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 59¢ $101 18h
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues BUY Joao Domingues 60¢ $66 24h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 61¢ $101 27h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $51 2d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.78 · official $118.78 (match) · 12 history records