Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe220…0aae other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,678 (+2%) realized +$1,649 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate73%162W / 59L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$101
14 days−$291
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1,001
sports 32% +$2,010
crypto 10% −$422
politics 6% −$252
economics 5% −$6
tech 3% −$537
finance 0% −$106
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.7% -12.0% 62% 50% -32.4%
≤30d 19 -41.2% -46.8% 37% 32% -47.0%
≤90d 24 -26.7% -33.7% 50% 42% +9.5%
all 221 -8.2% -16.9% 73% 29% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 29% -7.6%
10% -24.9% 19% -16.4%
15% -32.1% 13% -24.5%
20% -38.8% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$116 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$1,201
Realized+$1,649
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses162 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions15
Markets (closed)221 / 239
History coverage254d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $93 $140 +$47 (+51%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$44 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? May 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $5,390 +$1,381 +26%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $1,014 +$317 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 07 $120 +$8 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $20 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 23? Feb 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $200 +$103 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 14 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $200 +$56 +28%
XRP Up or Down on February 3? Feb 07 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 02 $1,000 +$42 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $32 +$2 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 31 $70 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 29? Jan 30 $33 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down on January 29? Jan 30 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down on January 29? Jan 30 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 29? Jan 30 $52 +$1 +2%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 27 $46 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25? Jan 27 $521 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $21 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,201.35 · official $1,251.35 · 694 history records