Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe223…f54f other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$17
politics 33% −$13
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% +$93
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 +2.6% -7.2% 7% 5% -9.4%
all 117 +2.1% -7.6% 9% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 7% -9.3%
10% -16.4% 6% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×23.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage114d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $252 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $291 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $683 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $303 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $269 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $443 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $331 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $476 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 13h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $49 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $49 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 12d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 15d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $6 18d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 23d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $286 23d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $286 24d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $291 24d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $291 25d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $225 25d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $225 26d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records