Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe227…e9d0 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+11%) realized +$46 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$58
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +16.3% +5.2% 53% 50% +6.5%
≤30d 32 +14.6% +3.7% 50% 47% +6.3%
≤90d 32 +14.6% +3.7% 50% 47% +6.3%
all 32 +14.6% +3.7% 50% 47% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 47% +6.3%
10% -6.3% 44% -3.8%
15% -15.3% 44% -13.1%
20% -23.6% 28% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$16 +105%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$9 +91%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$17 +162%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$23 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$14 +95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -36%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 −$8 -18%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 45m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 97¢ $19 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $27 3h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $18 6h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 13h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $30 35h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $13.39 (match) · 104 history records