Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E2 0xe227…9e7c crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$128 (+5%) realized +$129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate41%46W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$43
sports 6% −$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +4.2% -5.8% 38% 22% -15.0%
≤30d 78 +4.2% -5.8% 38% 22% -15.0%
≤90d 111 -3.7% -12.9% 41% 23% -14.8%
all 111 -3.7% -12.9% 41% 23% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 23% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 14% -23.0%
15% -28.8% 13% -30.4%
20% -35.8% 10% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses46 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage34d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $237 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $44 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $116 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $117 +$219 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$3 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$103 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $123 +$4 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$2 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$3 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$5 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $46 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$1 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$3 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$3 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $262 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.40 · official $19.40 (match) · 856 history records