Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe22a…210e other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$2
world 37% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage14d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $436 $435 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 29 $433 +$2 +0%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Jun 28 $234 +$1 +0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $333 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e BUY No 94¢ $437 18m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $435 46m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $433 1h
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL No 96¢ $235 24h
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY No 96¢ $234 25h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $320 26h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $322 28h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $332 14d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $333 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.22 · official $434.98 (match) · 9 history records