Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe22c…7baf sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-9%) realized −$89 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%45W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$89
14 days−$87
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$63
other 22% −$27
politics 4% −$2
economics 4% −$9
crypto 3% −$20
tech 2% +$1
world 2% +$2
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 44% -29.8%
≤30d 72 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 42% -19.9%
≤90d 90 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 39% -20.1%
all 90 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 39% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 39% -20.1%
10% -30.9% 36% -27.8%
15% -37.6% 27% -34.8%
20% -43.7% 18% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses45 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions26
Markets (closed)90 / 116
History coverage44d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes 72¢ 42¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-50%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 14¢ 44¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+205%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 89¢ 71¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$4 +276%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 +$17 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$6 +45%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 +$7 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -56%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $4 +$9 +229%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $13 +$17 +140%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $13 −$9 -73%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 11 $13 −$10 -77%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -10%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $24 +$4 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $2 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 32h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 89¢ $4 37h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $5 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $15 37h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2d
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $14 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.44 · official $248.44 (match) · 277 history records