Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E2 0xe22d…635d world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$471 (+2%) realized +$392 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,018per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$310
14 days+$393
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$295
politics 27% +$176
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 5 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 20% -6.3%
≤90d 5 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 20% -6.3%
all 5 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 20% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 20% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -15.2%
15% -22.7% 0% -23.4%
20% -30.3% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$9,373
Realized+$392
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2,018
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $4,888 $4,907 +$19 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $3,940 $3,979 +$39 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $311 $318 +$7 (+2%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $125 $140 +$14 (+11%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 17 $755 +$26 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 16 $1,688 +$49 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 16 $2,329 +$58 +2%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $5,356 +$176 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 04 $758 +$83 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $733 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,145 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 3h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $83 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $769 6h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $36 7h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes $1 13h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes $4 13h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes $4 13h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 15h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 15h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 15h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $72 15h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 15h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 15h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $5 16h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $5 16h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $5 17h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $5 17h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $5 17h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $10 17h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $9 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,373.16 · official $9,373.16 (match) · 186 history records