Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe22f…1076 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$410 (+18%) realized −$160 · open +$570
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip
Net edge-93%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$577
crypto 42% −$881
sports 1% −$15
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-92.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -97.7%
≤30d 26 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -97.7%
≤90d 26 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -97.7%
all 26 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -97.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -92.2% 4% -97.7%
10% ← realistic here -93.0% 4% -97.9%
15% -93.6% 4% -98.1%
20% -94.3% 4% -98.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -91% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$36 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,905
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$570
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1,500 +$500 (+50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $235 $352 +$118 (+50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $55 $28 −$28 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jenson Brooksby 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $194 −$180 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $329 −$305 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $167 −$155 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$25 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$45 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 17¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 8¢ $5 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 0¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,905.39 · official $1,905.39 (match) · 247 history records