Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe230…42d5 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$7
other 19% −$3
world 17% −$3
politics 17% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 70 -1.1% -10.5% 54% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage566d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of March? Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in January? Feb 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in January? Feb 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $312 in November? Dec 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $2,749 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $2,621 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $2,561 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on Feb 28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $1,980 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $982 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $984 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $995 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $992 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $991 −$1 -0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 Feb 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be less than .028 on February 7? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $3 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 11 $2 $0 +4%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? Dec 11 $15 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 11 $3 $0 -0%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 10 $16 $0 -0%
Warriors vs. Rockets Dec 10 $24 $0 -0%
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets Dec 10 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 29d
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 64d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $28 91d
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 151d
Will BNB dip to $500 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will Amazon reach $312 in November? BUY No 100¢ $39 208d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,746 241d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,749 241d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,619 241d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,621 241d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,558 241d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,561 241d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 248d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 97¢ $2 305d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 99¢ $2 334d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 395d
Solana all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 395d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? BUY No 97¢ $2 433d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 458d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 468d
Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $2 482d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 482d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 482d
Will XRP reach $3.20 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 482d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $990 485d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $991 485d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $29.74 (match) · 179 history records