Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe234…304a
world · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,709 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,870 · open +$5,050
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81,067
Realized−$2,870
Unrealized+$5,050
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)4 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8,956
Trades / day182.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 13 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,870
7 days−$2,870
14 days−$2,870
30 days−$2,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $20,079 $24,073 +$3,994 (+20%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 100¢ 100¢ $22,093 $22,131 +$38 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $10,589 $12,246 +$1,657 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $8,200 $8,849 +$649 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 24¢ $5,535 $5,132 −$403 (-7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 41¢ 49¢ $2,217 $2,634 +$417 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 48¢ $2,573 $2,004 −$569 (-22%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,610 $1,946 +$336 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $967 $1,235 +$267 (+28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $1,768 $592 −$1,176 (-67%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $137 $135 −$2 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $235 $84 −$151 (-64%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? No 0¢ 0¢ $14 $8 −$5 (-40%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,443 −$1,258 -87%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,588 −$1,558 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,341 +$91 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $145 −$145 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% +$4,964
tech 31% −$2,778
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,134 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,416 13m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $999 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $1,998 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $8,372 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $5,475 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $2,897 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 100¢ $33,408 56m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 100¢ $8,406 1h
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY No 0¢ $14 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 0¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $130 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $486 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $809 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $111 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 1¢ $44 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $252 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,020 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $600 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $784 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $171 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,354 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $684 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $221 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $405 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $142 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $240 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-60.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.7% -60.8% 25% 0% -44.1%
≤30d 4 -56.7% -60.8% 25% 0% -44.1%
≤90d 4 -56.7% -60.8% 25% 0% -44.1%
all 4 -56.7% -60.8% 25% 0% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover182.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.8% 0% -44.1%
10% -64.6% 0% -49.4%
15% ← realistic here -68.0% 0% -54.3%
20% -71.1% 0% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81,067.00 · official $81,067.00 (match) · 208 history records