Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe235…968a crypto 1209 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,995 (-5%) realized −$2,984 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%693W / 502L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,759
world 0% −$133
other 0% −$24
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 47% -13.1%
≤30d 43 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 47% -13.1%
≤90d 541 -14.4% -22.6% 54% 47% -17.0%
all 1195 -10.2% -18.8% 58% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 50% -15.1%
10% -26.5% 39% -23.2%
15% -33.6% 29% -30.6%
20% -40.1% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$34 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$2,984
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses693 / 502
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1195 / 1209
History coverage144d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 95¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 329 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $128 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$56 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 26 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 26 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.17 · official $158.64 (match) · 3219 history records