Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe236…10c9 politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
politics 23% $0
other 15% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 0% -9.2%
all 36 +0.4% -9.1% 44% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage272d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 14 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $11 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Oct 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 25 $11 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $18 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $33 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $12 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $21 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $34 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 182d
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 97¢ $11 243d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $21 243d
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 97¢ $11 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? SELL No 99¢ $11 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 98¢ $11 246d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $11 246d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $11 255d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 255d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 256d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 97¢ $4 256d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 97¢ $7 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.72 · official $33.72 (match) · 101 history records