Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe23b…c1e5 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,938 (+13%) realized +$1,964 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%30W / 18L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,200
7 days−$1,463
14 days−$488
30 days−$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$87
other 24% +$655
politics 7% +$216
world 1% +$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +62.0% +46.6% 57% 57% -37.4%
≤30d 27 +70.5% +54.3% 59% 59% -14.9%
≤90d 46 +46.3% +32.4% 61% 54% -3.3%
all 48 +49.6% +35.4% 62% 54% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.4% 54% -2.2%
10% +22.4% 52% -11.5%
15% +10.6% 50% -20.1%
20% -0.2% 50% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$334 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1,964
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses30 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage92d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce? Yes $63 $37 −$26 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet Jun 26 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots Jun 23 $0 +$1 +900%
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots Jun 23 $9 +$5 +54%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $438 +$304 +69%
Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots Jun 23 $31 +$31 +98%
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots Jun 22 $520 −$455 -88%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $6 +$4 +65%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $426 +$565 +132%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 21 $525 −$525 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $180 −$178 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $694 +$486 +70%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Donyell Malen: 3+ shots Jun 20 $162 +$128 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots Jun 18 $97 +$403 +414%
Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots Jun 18 $72 +$428 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $195 −$195 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$65 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $584 +$446 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $513 +$437 +85%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots Jun 17 $125 +$75 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $512 +$538 +105%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots Jun 16 $82 +$80 +97%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $961 −$951 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Robert Andrich record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champion Jun 13 $10 +$10 +102%
Valencia: Juan Carlos Prado vs Leandro Riedi May 12 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $511 +$389 +76%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $500 −$494 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $562 +$447 +79%
Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to Score May 08 $363 −$13 -4%
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral electi May 08 $192 +$9 +5%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 08 $823 +$206 +25%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 05 $297 +$8 +3%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $313 −$313 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $130 +$108 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 20 $100 +$67 +67%
Portsmouth FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $102 −$15 -15%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 15 $546 +$447 +82%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Apr 12 $32 +$1 +4%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $500 +$500 +100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 04 $404 −$397 -98%
Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5 Mar 26 $389 +$9 +2%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $83 +$209 +251%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet BUY Amelie Van Impe 46¢ $126 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet BUY Amelie Van Impe 46¢ $280 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet BUY Amelie Van Impe 50¢ $812 1h
Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $65 3d
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots SELL No 66¢ $65 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $373 3d
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots BUY No 65¢ $130 3d
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots BUY No 65¢ $390 3d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots BUY No 10¢ $0 3d
Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots BUY No 51¢ $10 3d
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots BUY No 65¢ $9 3d
Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots BUY No 50¢ $21 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 56¢ $10 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 34¢ $5 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 34¢ $1 3d
Will Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce? BUY Yes $50 4d
Will Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce? BUY Yes $13 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 40¢ $16 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 40¢ $204 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 45¢ $206 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 49¢ $1 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 49¢ $41 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 49¢ $5 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 49¢ $2 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $1 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $4 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $350 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.12 · official $39.00 · 239 history records