Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe23b…da4f crypto 345 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-7%) realized −$179 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%105W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$47
14 days−$35
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$368
sports 26% +$22
other 18% −$135
culture 0% $0
politics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -20.4% -28.0% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤30d 53 -16.6% -24.5% 43% 43% -23.0%
≤90d 66 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 39% -19.2%
all 343 -32.4% -38.8% 31% 28% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 28% -31.3%
10% -44.7% 25% -37.9%
15% -50.0% 22% -43.9%
20% -54.9% 18% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses105 / 238
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)343 / 345
History coverage115d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $22 +$6 +26%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +83%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $34 +$16 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +139%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $21 +$9 +43%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$19 +37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +128%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 +$11 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$11 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $34 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $8 +$9 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$10 -81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +160%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$25 +491%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 56¢ $10 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $52 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $22 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL 94¢ $43 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 45¢ $34 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $30 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $24 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 98¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.11 · official $29.92 (match) · 961 history records