Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe23c…2c63 sports 61 markets active 1d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$151 (+10%) realized +$145 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$77
sports 27% +$102
politics 11% +$196
crypto 3% −$50
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.3% -22.4% 32% 32% -15.8%
≤30d 23 -3.8% -13.0% 35% 35% -9.9%
≤90d 43 -39.0% -44.8% 21% 21% -43.4%
all 56 +7.0% -3.2% 32% 32% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 32% +0.8%
10% -12.4% 30% -8.9%
15% -20.9% 29% -17.7%
20% -28.7% 29% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$14 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage454d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +123%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -93%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $20 +$21 +102%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $20 +$60 +300%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$23 +226%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? May 14 $80 −$60 -75%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Chiefs vs. Giants Apr 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Rangers vs. Blue Jays Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $35 −$35 -100%
WTA Cincinnati - Rybakina vs. Swiatek Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gary Anderson win the PDC World Darts Championship? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Dec 23 $370 +$96 +26%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $5 +$11 +216%
Patriots vs. Bills Oct 07 $20 +$71 +354%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 21 $10 +$23 +233%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 25 $20 +$75 +376%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 25 $10 +$93 +928%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $10 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 16¢ $8 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $20 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 20¢ $11 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 51¢ $9 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $4 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $4 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.33 · official $66.33 (match) · 122 history records