Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe23d…3c72 other 366 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,305 (+5%) realized +$4,472 · open −$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%157W / 206L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$1,829
sports 9% −$409
crypto 5% −$1,080
weather 2% −$601
culture 2% −$38
politics 2% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -51.3% -55.9% 27% 18% -54.2%
≤30d 89 -15.8% -23.8% 46% 38% -22.8%
≤90d 322 -23.2% -30.5% 38% 27% -25.7%
all 363 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 31% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 31% -13.8%
10% -23.1% 25% -22.0%
15% -30.6% 22% -29.6%
20% -37.4% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$108 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$4,472
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses157 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions3
Markets (closed)363 / 366
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$217
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $61 $70 +$9 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 27 $295 −$289 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $167 +$2 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $285 −$106 -37%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $273 +$46 +17%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $113 +$87 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $162 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $380 −$205 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $86 −$77 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 25 $115 +$21 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 25 $247 +$19 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 25 $31 −$19 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 25 $149 −$103 -69%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $120 +$180 +150%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 25 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 25 $38 −$29 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 25 $910 −$858 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 25 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 25 $331 −$209 -63%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $300 −$200 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 25 $23 −$21 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $156 +$14 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $560 +$139 +25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$5 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$13 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $399 +$244 +61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $61 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $67 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $72 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $32 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $43 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 11h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $167 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 12h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $4 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 37¢ $179 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.25 · official $71.25 (match) · 3500 history records