Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe243…af59 other 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,612 (-11%) realized −$2,431 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%26W / 259L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$921
14 days−$1,577
30 days−$3,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$2,444
crypto 12% −$822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 57 -94.2% -94.7% 2% 2% -93.9%
≤90d 271 -46.1% -51.2% 8% 7% -18.4%
all 285 -38.5% -44.4% 9% 8% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.4% 8% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -49.7% 8% -29.5%
15% -54.6% 8% -36.3%
20% -59.0% 7% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$541 vs −$66 · ×8.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$2,431
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses26 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)285 / 288
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $157 $42 −$114 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $64 $6 −$58 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $75 +$174 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 24h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.50 (match) · 3500 history records