Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe244…bc40 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$485 (-29%) realized −$482 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$11
crypto 26% −$421
other 8% −$3
world 5% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +50.1% +35.8% 100% 100% +37.3%
≤30d 2 +50.1% +35.8% 100% 100% +37.3%
≤90d 18 -30.6% -37.3% 50% 44% -35.9%
all 22 -24.6% -31.8% 50% 45% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 45% -34.6%
10% -38.3% 27% -40.9%
15% -44.2% 23% -46.6%
20% -49.7% 14% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$58 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$482
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage129d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $127 $124 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un Jun 29 $80 +$49 +60%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $57 +$23 +40%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $47 −$46 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $39 +$8 +21%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 08 $35 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Group Apr 10 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu Apr 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 10 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $98 +$35 +36%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 04 $106 +$18 +17%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 04 $131 +$31 +24%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 04 $98 −$20 -20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $62 +$36 +58%
Counter-Strike: InControl vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Mar 24 $18 +$9 +53%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $23 −$5 -22%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $56 −$19 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $129 21m
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un SELL Millennium Esports 99¢ $129 22m
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un BUY Millennium Esports 61¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL summer bear 88¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY summer bear 62¢ $57 1h
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 48¢ $47 51d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $47 51d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $39 51d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $39 51d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $35 52d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL JD Gaming 96¢ $133 79d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 70¢ $98 79d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage SELL Cloud9 99¢ $124 85d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage BUY Cloud9 85¢ $106 85d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play SELL G2 98¢ $106 85d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 93¢ $6 85d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play SELL G2 98¢ $6 85d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 57¢ $62 85d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play SELL BetBoom Team 40¢ $49 85d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $62 85d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Team Vitality 59¢ $78 85d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Team Vitality 74¢ $98 85d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $98 85d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 62¢ $62 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $102 86d
Counter-Strike: InControl vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League SELL InControl 53¢ $102 86d
Counter-Strike: InControl vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League BUY InControl 51¢ $100 86d
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu BUY Supernova 39¢ $29 86d
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu BUY Supernova 63¢ $69 86d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Group BUY OG 56¢ $27 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.79 · official $123.81 (match) · 50 history records